Israel
Patrick Kingsley serves as The Times’s bureau chief in Jerusalem.
The polls clearly show that Israelis would predominantly vote for Trump if given the chance. However, regardless of the election outcome, the long-term impact is expected to be limited.
Israeli society, as well as the government, currently holds stronger opposition towards Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution compared to previous years. It is unlikely that any U.S. president would be able to change this stance. President Harris might apply more pressure on Israel to engage in ceasefire talks with the Palestinians, but it is improbable that she would completely cut off military support to Israel.
President Trump may be more lenient towards Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, a move that some factions within the Israeli government support. Additionally, he takes a tougher stance on Iran than Harris, which resonates with many Israelis. However, Trump’s unpredictability raises concerns, as his actions may not always align with his rhetoric. For instance, he recently hinted at not seeking to overthrow the Iranian regime.
Due to this unpredictability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might see an opportunity to leverage a Harris administration to Israel’s advantage. Therefore, the internal Israeli perspective may be more complex than it appears.