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Israel’s attack on Iran early Saturday, coordinated with Washington and limited to missile and air defense sites, was more restrained than anticipated. This may aid diplomatic efforts to secure the release of hostages and reduce conflict in Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel waited until US Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned to Washington from consultations with Israeli and Arab allies before launching the assault.
During a series of nighttime sorties over potentially hostile territories such as Syria and Iraq, dozens of Israeli warplanes flew thousands of kilometers. Refueling midair, they targeted military sites in three provinces in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1.
Israel released videos showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and military leaders coordinating from a defense ministry bunker. This was a rare acknowledgment of an attack on Iran and an escalation of what has been primarily a shadow war.
The Israeli attack avoided targeting oil, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure sites, following a request from US President Joe Biden’s administration. Biden is leading efforts to resolve the crises triggered by Iran’s proxy in Gaza, Hamas, which brutally attacked Israel a year ago. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant maintained close contact with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin throughout the operation.
Israel’s restrained response on Saturday allowed Iran to dismiss it as ineffective, potentially paving the way for a restrained or no response at all.
Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref posted on social media, “Iran’s power has humiliated the enemies of the motherland,” while state TV aired footage of children going to school and people exercising. The official Tasnim news agency only mentioned “reserving the right to respond.”
Israeli spokespeople portrayed the attack as evidence of their deep knowledge of Iran’s military outposts and their ability to strike anywhere in the country, sending a message to Tehran.
Former director of Israel’s military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, stated on Channel 12 before the attack concluded, “The ball is now in the Iranian court.” The goal was to demonstrate Israel’s capabilities.
The operation was codenamed “Days of Penitence,” suggesting it aimed to prompt regret, reflection, and new resolutions among friends and foes alike.
While US regional allies like Saudi Arabia condemned the Israeli attack as a violation of Iranian sovereignty, Israeli officials suspected Riyadh was comfortable with the level of Israel’s response.
Israeli political leaders criticized the assault as a missed opportunity to make a more substantial strategic point. However, Netanyahu’s recent strong actions against Lebanon’s Hezbollah have helped restore Israel’s deterrence, shattered by Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7.
Israel’s ongoing operations in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and missile launchers, have significantly reduced the threat posed by both Hezbollah and Hamas.
Efforts are underway to rebuild Lebanon’s army and political structure, distance Hezbollah from the Israeli border, secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and establish governance in Gaza excluding Hamas and Israeli military involvement.
Israel’s limited response on Saturday may expedite these processes, potentially involving the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations in Gaza’s reconstruction if a ceasefire can be achieved.
Significant developments are unlikely until the US presidential election on Nov. 5, with Israel’s next steps potentially influenced by the election outcome.
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