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A child is helped away from the floods near Valencia in Spain
Although scientists are hesitant to attribute any specific extreme event to climate change, researchers have been quick to highlight the role that increasing temperatures have played in exacerbating the Spanish floods.
“There is no doubt that these intense downpours were intensified by climate change,” stated Dr. Friederike Otto, from Imperial College London, who heads an international team of scientists studying the impact of warming on such events.
“With each fraction of a degree of fossil fuel-induced warming, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, resulting in heavier rainfall bursts.”
Weather experts suggest that the primary cause of the heavy rainfall was a natural weather phenomenon that occurs in Spain during Autumn and Winter.
Known as a “gota fría” or cold drop, this event involves cold air descending over the warmer waters of the Mediterranean Sea, which has been experiencing exceptionally hot conditions in recent years.
The warm, moist air near the sea’s surface rises rapidly, leading to the formation of tall, towering clouds that bring heavy rainfall when blown ashore.
Researchers have found that climate change directly influenced the amount of rainfall carried by these clouds, increasing it by 7% for every 1 degree Celsius of warming.
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A road strewn with cars after the floods in Spain
Baked soils
When the rain begins to fall, it comes down with greater intensity on soils that are less capable of absorbing high levels of water.
“In addition to increased rainfall extremes, we are witnessing hotter summers that can dry out the soil and reduce its ability to soak up water,” explained Prof. Mark Smith from the University of Leeds.
“This amplifies the effects of increased rainfall intensities as more water flows into the rivers.”
There is some discussion among scientists about whether a warmer climate slows down these storms, which could worsen the amount of rainfall they bring.
This year, we have seen some evidence of such slow-moving storms and the devastating impact they can have.
In September, Storm Boris caused death and destruction in several countries across Central Europe, further fueled by the high temperatures in the Mediterranean.
Scientists stated that this slow-moving disaster was made twice as likely by climate change.
In Spain, the lack of precise warnings has led to criticism that more could have been done.
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The floods hit with such intensity that some bridges were washed away
However, meteorologists point out that predicting the path of fast-moving, intense thunderstorms is quite challenging.
“Warnings can save lives by helping people seek higher ground and safety before a flood. But as seen in Spain today, issuing warnings for intense thunderstorms is incredibly difficult because the exact location of the heaviest rainfall is often unknown in advance,” noted Dr. Linda Speight from the University of Oxford.
“Forecasters and scientists are working on innovative solutions to this challenge, but it won’t be an easy problem to solve.”
The flooding in Spain has highlighted the inadequacy of modern infrastructure in coping with extreme flooding events, as some researchers have pointed out that our roads, bridges, and streets are designed to handle the climate of the past century, not the current one.