Reports indicating that North Korea is sending troops to assist Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine underscore the significant manpower constraints that are impacting the Russian economy and military.
According to South Korea’s intelligence service, they collaborated with Ukrainian authorities in utilizing facial recognition AI technology to identify North Korean officers in Ukraine’s Donetsk region who were aiding Russian forces in operating North Korean artillery.
The spy agency stated in a Reuters report, “The direct military collaboration between Russia and North Korea, as reported by foreign media, has now been officially confirmed.”
Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied any exchange of troops.
However, experts are increasingly emphasizing the fundamental weaknesses in Russia’s economy, which may seem robust due to extensive defense expenditures, and are predicting challenges in maintaining its war efforts in Ukraine.
In addition to the Western sanctions that have largely isolated Moscow from the global financial system, Russia has experienced a significant exodus of talent leaving the country, as well as hundreds of thousands of casualties from the conflict. This has resulted in a tight labor market and high inflation, with the defense industry and military mobilization occupying a larger portion of the working-age population – posing obstacles in President Vladimir Putin’s ability to recruit more troops for the war.
In a piece for The Hill, Rutgers University-Newark political science professor Alexander J. Motyl forecasted a “meltdown” in the Russian economy next year.
“As the Russian economy deteriorates, suffering and social discontent rise, and resources dry up, Putin will exhaust his means to sustain his war machine,” he wrote.
This scenario could lead to the end of his regime and potentially even the collapse of the Russian state, Motyl suggested, drawing parallels to historical instances where countries lacked sufficient economic resources to continue waging wars.
An economic collapse would weaken Russia’s military and war efforts, leaving Putin with two options. The first is unlikely as it would necessitate Putin to demand more sacrifices from society. The second is to “push his armies beyond the brink of exhaustion hoping for a miracle intervention,” but that would only delay his defeat and potential removal from power.
Similarly, Stefan Hedlund, a professor of Russian studies at Uppsala University, penned an analysis for Geopolitical Intelligence Services reiterating the distortions in the economy caused by the war and defense spending.
“Significant funds are being channeled towards contracting Russian soldiers, many of whom will perish in Ukraine, and towards the production of military equipment, much of which will be destroyed on the battlefield,” he noted. “Neither of these outcomes can be justified in the long run.”
Meanwhile, non-defense sector companies are encountering mounting labor shortages, escalating costs, and the prospect of even higher interest rates as the Russian central bank aims to curb inflation, Hedlund added.
Moreover, exports of oil, gas, and weapons – traditionally major revenue sources for the regime – are now under pressure due to weakening prices and demand.
The probable outcome is that Russia’s economy will face immense strain and a bleak future, Hedlund predicted. As Moscow turns to North Korea for troops, its economy may start resembling that of its ally.
“Even if Moscow manages to sustain some exports, ongoing sanctions will prevent Russian producers from accessing crucial intermediate goods, hindering their participation in global value chains,” he stated. “Prolonged isolation from developed segments of the global economy will essentially lead to a shift towards North Korean autarky.”