By Tom Balmforth and Alexander Tanas
CHISINAU (Reuters) – Moldovans are casting their votes on Sunday in a presidential election and EU referendum at a critical juncture that could strengthen the small agricultural economy’s efforts to join the European Union, amid accusations of Russian interference in the election.
With the ongoing war in Ukraine to the east drawing attention to the former Soviet republic, Moldova has expedited its efforts to break away from Moscow’s influence and has initiated the lengthy process of EU accession negotiations.
Opinion polls indicate that the pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu holds a significant lead over her 10 competitors on the ballot, although a runoff on Nov. 3 will be required if she does not secure at least 50% of the vote.
If the election goes to a second round, Sandu is likely to face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor-general supported by the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists.
Sandu is hopeful for a strong “yes” vote in the referendum, which will determine whether a clause is added to the constitution stating EU accession as an objective.
“Our future will be decided on Sunday. Every vote counts, regardless of where we are,” she wrote on Facebook on Friday.
Most polls indicate majority support for joining the 27-nation bloc, although five candidates have urged their supporters to vote “No” or boycott, claiming that the timing of the referendum is a tactic to boost Sandu’s chances in the election.
For the referendum to be valid, a turnout of at least one-third of the individuals on the electoral rolls is required, even though the lists have not been updated for years despite many people emigrating.
A weak outcome for Sandu could set the stage for next year’s parliamentary elections, where analysts believe her PAS party will face a challenge to maintain its majority.
Situated between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova, with a population of under 3 million, has shifted between pro-Western and pro-Russian orientations since the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991.
Relations with Moscow have deteriorated since Sandu assumed office in December 2020. Her government has denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, accused Russia of conspiring to overthrow her, and diversified energy sources after Russia reduced gas supplies.
ALLEGED INTERFERENCE
The campaign has been overshadowed by allegations of election interference.
Authorities have accused Ilan Shor, a fugitive tycoon residing in Russia, of attempting to bribe a network of at least 130,000 voters to vote “No” and support a specific candidate.
Shor, who has been convicted in absentia for fraud and theft and is under Western sanctions, has openly offered to pay Moldovans to persuade others to vote “No” and support “our candidate”. He denies any wrongdoing and claims the money is his.
In the lead-up to the election, state radio in Chisinau has aired advertisements urging people not to vote for money and encouraging them to report any such offers to authorities.
Law enforcement agencies announced on Thursday that they had uncovered a scheme in which hundreds of individuals were sent to Russia for training to incite riots and civil unrest.
Russia has denied interfering in Moldova and has long accused the government of having “Russophobic” sentiments.
Police chief Viorel Cernauteanu told Reuters on Saturday that there had been numerous voice and text messages sent from abroad in recent days, instructing Moldovans to either boycott the referendum or vote “No”.
He mentioned that the police had taken all necessary measures to prevent any influence on the election.
“There may be some degree of influence in any case, but I believe it will not significantly impact the overall vote.”