1 airstrike on a Syrian port that Damascus said was used for civilian cargo, which could be linked to the delivery of Russian weapons to Syria. In retaliation, Russia launched a missile strike on an Israeli base in the Golan Heights, marking the first direct military clash between the two countries.
Meanwhile, Russia’s relationship with Israel has remained largely cordial despite the war in Ukraine, which has seen the U.S. and European Union slap sanctions on Moscow for its aggression.
Russia has been trying to balance its support for Iran with its ties to Israel, which is a key player in the Middle East and has the backing of the U.S. and most Western countries. However, it remains to be seen how Russia will navigate its relationships with both countries as tensions continue to escalate in the region.
Analysts say that while Russia is unlikely to directly intervene in the conflict between Iran and Israel, it may provide Tehran with military support in the form of air defense systems and intelligence to help detect and deter potential Israeli attacks.
Overall, the evolving relationship between Russia and Iran in the face of mounting pressure from Israel and the U.S. underscores the complex dynamics at play in the Middle East and the broader geopolitical landscape.
”
The recent bombings of Iranian forces near Syria’s Khmeimim Air Base, which has been operated by Russia since it supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government during the country’s civil war a decade ago, have raised concerns about the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. Analysts are unsure of Russia’s level of support for Iran in the event of a direct war between Iran and Israel, especially considering Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, which is already stretching its military resources thin.
According to Nikita Smagin, an Iran expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, the growing conflict between Israel and Iran is starting to impact Russian interests in the Middle East and could jeopardize various Russian-Iranian projects. However, Smagin believes that Moscow is more likely to adapt to the changing situation rather than directly intervene. He emphasized that Russia cannot and will not save Iran in a confrontation with Israel and the United States.
Amidst its war in Ukraine, Russia does not have the capacity to engage in another conflict, Smagin noted. He suggested that Russia would only consider indirect involvement in the conflict with Israel if it weakened the United States. This could involve supplying weapons to Iranian proxy forces like Hezbollah and the Houthis, but only if it served to undermine the U.S., rather than Israel.
Overall, the situation in the Middle East remains complex, with Russia balancing its interests in the region while dealing with its commitments in Ukraine. The evolving dynamics between Iran, Israel, and the United States will continue to shape Russia’s approach to the conflict, with a focus on maintaining its strategic position without overextending itself.
At the same time, Russia’s relationship with Saudi Arabia could also play a role in its stance on the conflict. While Moscow may not directly intervene, its interactions with regional players like Saudi Arabia could influence its actions in the region.