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In the last weeks of the presidential race, some polls and prediction markets suggest that Donald Trump could be re-elected in January 2025. The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election has shown Trump overtaking Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August, and other news outlets and political forecasters are also predicting a Trump victory.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt are also indicating a Trump win, with Polymarket users giving him a 64% chance and PredictIt showing a 59% chance. However, it’s important to note that Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based platform that doesn’t allow American users to trade on the website.
Recently, a few Polymarket accounts have made significant bets on Trump winning the election, totaling over $35 million. This influx of money has led to Trump appearing ahead in the election odds. Some experts believe that these large bets may be influencing the market in favor of Trump.
While some experts consider prediction markets to be accurate in predicting election outcomes due to real money being at stake, others are more skeptical, especially since Polymarket is limited to cryptocurrency bets and excludes U.S. voters. This has led to debates on the reliability of prediction markets in forecasting election results.
Despite the predictions favoring Trump in the presidential election market, Harris is leading in the popular vote market. Pollster Cliff Young suggests that Trump’s strength in swing states may be driving his advantage in the election odds.
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