A new study conducted by ACT has revealed significant changes in how high school grade point average (HSGPA) and ACT Composite scores predict first-year college performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research shows that while the predictive power of HSGPA has decreased since 2020, ACT Composite scores remain a reliable indicator of students’ early college success.
Early success in college is crucial for degree completion, and HSGPA and standardized test scores like the ACT have been used to predict first-year college GPA (FYGPA). This helps students prepare for higher education and enables colleges to identify students who may need additional support.
The study analyzed students’ ACT Composite scores, self-reported HSGPAs, and official FYGPAs. It found that while HSGPA increased from 3.44 in 2017 to 3.59 in 2021, ACT Composite scores decreased from 22.51 in 2018 to 21.90 in 2021.
Dr. Edgar I. Sanchez, a lead research scientist at ACT, highlighted that high school GPA has become a less consistent predictor of FYGPA post-pandemic, while ACT Composite scores have remained stable in predicting first-year GPA. This calls for a more holistic approach to predicting student success.
As colleges adjust their evaluation processes and education faces ongoing pandemic effects, the study’s findings offer insights on how colleges can best assess student performance. Janet Godwin, ACT CEO, emphasized the importance of accurate assessment for supporting students effectively in higher education.
The study, based on 40,194 students across 10 postsecondary institutions, recommends a holistic approach using both HSGPA and ACT Composite score for predicting FYGPA effectively. Combining these measures improved predictions more than using either measure alone.
Key findings from the study include significant grade inflation in high schools post-pandemic, stability in the relationship between ACT Composite score and predicted FYGPA, and the effectiveness of using both HSGPA and ACT Composite score together for predicting FYGPA.
The mean ACT Composite score decreased slightly from 22.34 in 2017 to 21.90 in 2021, while the mean HSGPA increased from 3.44 in 2017 to 3.59 in 2021. The mean FYGPA showed a steady increase from 2.81 in 2017 to 2.92 in 2019, dropped to 2.78 in 2020, and then rebounded to 2.84 in 2021.
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