(Bloomberg) — Moldovan President Maia Sandu was on track to win the first round of Sunday’s elections, but a crucial referendum on joining the European Union remained too close to call, indicating the challenges the country will face in breaking away from Russia’s influence.
Sandu secured about 42% support, the highest among a group of 11 candidates, according to preliminary results from the Central Electoral Commission in the capital Chisinau. Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian candidate and former prosecutor, came in second with around 26%. The runoff is scheduled for Nov. 3.
The outcome of the key referendum, which aims to embed the long-term goal of EU membership into the country’s constitution, was still undecided with 49.9% support after nearly 98% of the votes were counted. The uncounted ballots from overseas voters, who typically support EU accession, could impact the final result expected in the next few hours.
The stakes are high in the former Soviet republic as the pro-EU government confronted what it described as an unprecedented Russian campaign to obstruct the vote. Sandu intends to lead the country towards the EU by the end of the decade. Failure of the referendum could complicate her European aspirations, even if the vote is not binding.
“Moldova has faced an unprecedented attack on our nation’s freedom and democracy, both today and in recent months,” Sandu stated in the early hours of Monday morning. “We have substantial evidence that criminal groups attempted to purchase 300,000 votes – a fraud of unparalleled magnitude,” she added.
One of Europe’s poorest countries, Moldova initiated EU accession negotiations this year after obtaining candidacy status alongside Ukraine in 2022. Sandu’s government has promised to reform the nation’s justice system and strengthen the economy in order to become a member by 2030.
Disruption Attempts
However, Russia, which has controlled Moldova’s energy resources and political system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has tried to hinder the country’s Western trajectory. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of interfering in the elections, the chief Moldovan negotiator with the EU mentioned last week that Moscow had funneled approximately €100 million ($109 million) to disrupt the votes.
The election commission reported that voting proceeded without major hitches. Nonetheless, authorities in the country documented incidents, including attempts to transport or bribe voters, take photos of ballots, intimidation, and scuffles.
The Kremlin “categorically denies” accusations of meddling in Moldova’s electoral process, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated last week, according to the state-run Tass news agency.
Mihai Mogaldea, deputy director of the Institute for European Policy and Reforms, expressed confidence that votes from Moldovans casting ballots abroad would tip the EU referendum in favor.
Sandu, a 52-year-old former World Bank official, has led Moldova since 2020 with a goal to distance the country from Moscow’s influence and align it with the West. Surveys indicate that she would be favored to defeat Stoianoglo in the second round on Nov. 3.
A series of EU leaders had visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. The commission chief announced the provision of a record €1.8 billion to support Moldova’s economy.
The campaign has already brought about a change for the country sandwiched between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While Russia was its main trading partner a decade ago, around 70% of its exports – primarily fruit and wine – now go to the EU.
Nonetheless, Moscow still holds sway. Although the EU assisted the country in restoring energy supplies cut off by the Kremlin, Russian troops remain stationed in the separatist region of Transnistria. Furthermore, Gagauzia, an autonomous region to the south of Chisinau, also shows support for Russia.
The electoral stakes will escalate further next year when Moldova holds a general election. In that race, Sandu’s pro-European party may face tougher competition than in the presidential contest.
–With help from Irina Vilcu.
(Updates with preliminary results from the first paragraph.)
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