Insights from satellite images on Iran’s strikes

Satellite images analyzed by BBC Verify show damage to multiple military sites in Iran from Israeli air strikes on Saturday. They include sites that experts say were used for missile production and air defense, including one previously linked to Iran’s nuclear program. Satellite imagery following the Israeli strikes reveals damage to buildings at what experts say is a major weapons development and production facility at Parchin, approximately 30km (18.5 miles) east of Tehran. The site has been linked to rocket production according to experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Comparing high-resolution satellite imagery taken on 9 September with an image captured on 27 October, it appears that at least four structures have been significantly damaged. One of these structures, known as Taleghan 2, has been previously linked to Iran’s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In 2016, the IAEA found evidence of uranium particles at the site, raising questions about banned nuclear activity there. Another site apparently targeted in the Israeli air strikes is at Khojir, about 20km northwest of Parchin. Fabian Hinz of the IISS says “Khojir is known as the area with the highest concentration of ballistic missile-related infrastructure within Iran.” It was the site of a mysterious large explosion in 2020. Satellite photos show at least two buildings in the complex appear to have been severely damaged. Analysts from Sibylline, a risk intelligence company, concluded that damage to Iranian facilities believed to be linked to rocket fuel production at both Parchin and Khojir will ultimately undermine Iran’s ability to “fire another salvo of the scale necessary to breach Israeli air defenses.” A military site at Shahroud, about 350km east of Tehran, has also sustained damage, according to satellite imagery taken after the Israeli strikes. Located in the northern province of Semnan, this area is significant because it’s been involved in the production of long-range missile components, according to Fabian Hinz of the IISS. Nearby is the Shahroud Space Centre, controlled by the Revolutionary Guards Corps, from which Iran launched a military satellite into space in 2020. Israel has claimed that it successfully targeted Iran’s aerial defense systems at a number of locations, but it’s difficult to confirm this with the available satellite imagery. We have obtained satellite imagery which appears to show damage to a site described by experts as a radar installation. It’s located on Shah Nakhjir mountain close to the western city of Ilam, and Jeremy Binnie, Middle East specialist at Janes, a defense intelligence company, says this may have been a newly updated radar defense system. The site itself was established decades ago, but satellite pictures analyzed by open-source experts show it has undergone major renovation in recent years. We’ve also identified what appears to be damage to a storage unit at the Abadan Oil Refinery based in the southwestern province of Khuzestan. However, we don’t know what caused it, and there is likely to be damage in some areas across Iran caused by debris or misfiring defense systems. The New York Times cited Israeli officials as saying that the Abadan oil refinery was one of the sites targeted in its air strikes on Saturday morning. Iranian authorities confirmed on Saturday that Khuzestan province had been targeted by Israel. Abadan oil refinery is the country’s largest, capable of producing 500,000 barrels a day, according to its chief executive. Satellite imagery isn’t always conclusive in identifying damaged structures. For example, a photograph we have verified showing smoke rising near Hazrat Amir Brigade Air Defense base suggested it had been successfully targeted. But satellite imagery of the area captured on Sunday has too many shadows to confirm any damage to the site. Iran launched a missile attack on Israel at the start of October for the second time this year, after firing 300 missiles and drones in April. Additional reporting by Tom Spencer and Daniele Palumbo.

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