Donald Trump holds a slight 3-point lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona, driven by concerns surrounding the economy and the border. Harris, on the other hand, is favored by voters who prioritize abortion and the state of democracy, making this race a close one.
Voters believe that Trump’s policies prioritize the interests of U.S. citizens over recent immigrants, while they feel that Harris’ policies do not. Trump’s proposal to deport all illegal immigrants in the U.S. has the support of over half of Arizona voters.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 points. Gallego benefits from support from some Republicans and independents who are splitting their vote by choosing Trump for president and Gallego for Senate, as many Arizona voters view Lake as extreme.
On the issue of the economy and rising prices, voters leaning towards Trump are concerned about inflation and believe that he would better address these issues compared to Harris.
Regarding the border and immigration, Trump has a substantial lead over Harris among voters who consider the border a crucial factor in their decision. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to prioritize this issue.
Opinions on recent immigration’s impact on Arizona shape voters’ preferences, with those believing that recent immigrants have worsened life in the state supporting Trump, while those with a different perspective back Harris.
Trump’s proposal to deport all illegal immigrants garners strong support from his voters and over half of Arizona voters overall.
In terms of abortion, Harris has an advantage, but it may not be enough to surpass Trump. While most voters in Arizona support legal abortion, not all of them translate that support into a vote for Harris.
On the subject of democracy, Harris is favored by voters who prioritize this issue. However, Trump leads on issues related to the economy and inflation, which are more significant to most voters.
Latino voters in Arizona are more inclined to support Harris over Trump, although not by as wide a margin as in the previous election. Personal financial situations are a key factor influencing their choice.
Skepticism about the 2020 election outcome remains among Arizona Republicans and Trump supporters. There is a stark contrast in confidence in the election process between Trump and Harris voters.
Looking ahead to the Senate race, Lake trails Gallego, mainly due to Republicans and independents splitting their vote between Trump and Gallego.
Lake is perceived as extreme by most Arizona voters, while Gallego is viewed as reasonable.
The CBS News/YouGov survey involved 1,439 registered voters in Arizona and was conducted from October 11-16, 2024, with a margin of error of ±3.3 points.