Republican Eric Hovde is on the cusp of a breakthrough in the Wisconsin Senate race, as he faces incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in a critical moment during their first debate. Recent polling has shown Hovde gaining ground, giving hope to Republicans for a potential pickup in this competitive race.
Hovde, a wealthy businessman from Madison, previously ran for the Senate in 2012 but lost in the GOP primary to Baldwin. Despite Democrats downplaying his momentum this time around, Hovde’s ties to former President Trump and his significant self-funding have made this race a toss-up.
Recent polls have shown a tightening race, with Hovde even leading Baldwin in some internal polling. Outside money has flooded into the race, with the Senate Leadership Fund backing Hovde to boost his chances. Republicans are optimistic about Hovde’s chances this time, especially with his substantial self-funding and Trump’s popularity in Wisconsin.
Democrats, however, remain confident that Baldwin will prevail in the end. They have criticized Hovde for being a carpetbagger and for his past stance on issues like Roe v. Wade. Both candidates are gearing up for their debate, where they are expected to clash on key issues like the economy, immigration, and reproductive rights.
The debate is seen as a crucial moment in the race, with both candidates looking to make an impact and sway voters in the final stretch before Election Day. Any misstep on the debate stage could have a significant impact on the outcome of the race, making it a high-stakes showdown for both Hovde and Baldwin. And in a race in which the candidates appear separated by no more than a couple of points, that could make a big difference.
Another big factor loomming over the Senate contest is the competitive race for the White House, as Trump’s strength in the Midwest bolsters GOP hopes for the Senate.
The latest Decision Desk HQ averages show Trump leading Vice President Harris by 0.5 percentage points in the state. He won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2016, and President Biden pulled off a razor-thin flip back to Democrats in 2020.
Trump “needs to win for Hovde to win,” McCoshen said. “I can’t see a scenario where Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin and Hovde pulls off an upset.”
Republicans need just two seats to take control of the Senate, and they’re favored to do so with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) retirement in West Virginia and Sen. Jon Tester (D) highly vulnerable in Montana. If they don’t loose any other seats, that could win them the chamber — and potential pickups in Wisconsin or elsewhere could help expand their majority.
“Wisconsin’s kind of like the country’s foremost 50-50 state,” Zimmerman said. And as the polls grow tighter, “the stakes couldn’t be higher at the time this debate is being held.”
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