The conflict in Ukraine, following Russia’s full-scale invasion, is the most severe war this continent has seen since World War Two. Europe has once again turned to the US for coordinated leadership and military support, just as it did 80 years ago. President Biden has emphasized the need for more action, stating, “We must continue until Ukraine achieves a just and lasting peace… We must maintain our support.” The outcome of the November US election will play a significant role in determining the future course of events. Europe has relied on US military assistance to aid Ukraine, with Berlin being the second largest contributor after Washington. However, it is expected that this support will diminish once President Biden leaves office. Even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris becomes the next US president, Congress is likely to shift its focus to other foreign policy priorities such as China and Taiwan. During his administration from 2016 to 2020, President Trump’s relationship with NATO was tumultuous, and his stance on the conflict in Ukraine remains unclear. Despite discussions within NATO about strengthening European defense capabilities, there is little evidence of concrete action being taken. Following Russia’s invasion in 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a significant increase in military investment to support allied defense efforts. However, bureaucratic obstacles have hindered Germany’s military overhaul, with no agreement on a future defense budget. President Biden has expressed concerns about European unity, as signs of “Ukraine fatigue” emerge among European allies facing domestic challenges. Chancellor Scholz faces pressure from far-right and far-left factions sympathetic to the Russian narrative ahead of next year’s general election. The Quad, composed of the UK, France, Germany, and the US, reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine during a meeting in Berlin. The British Prime Minister noted that Russia’s military budget was being drained by the war in Ukraine and discussed further assistance for Ukraine without providing specifics. Ukrainian President Zelensky has requested concrete support in his “victory plan,” including an invitation to join NATO and authorization to use long-range missiles provided by the UK and France, requests that have been denied thus far. With key leaders facing political challenges, Ukraine urgently needs increased assistance as it navigates a vulnerable moment in its conflict with Russia.
