House Republicans are preparing for an internal party battle early next year over the ability to remove a speaker. While most Republicans dislike the tool, which has caused chaos in this Congress, some conservatives are ready to defend it.
Speaker Mike Johnson and his allies in leadership have indicated their desire to increase the number of members needed to call for a vote to depose a speaker. Currently, a single lawmaker can request a referendum. However, this fight is closely linked to Johnson’s aspirations to retain his position as speaker. The members who want to maintain the current rule are the same ones who have not committed to supporting his bid for the gavel, and they are willing to use that as leverage.
The majority of Republicans want to change the rule because the so-called motion to vacate allows a small group of lawmakers to exert significant influence on the agenda and weaken leadership. Johnson himself has acknowledged that the tool has been detrimental to his office and the House majority.
At present, there are enough conservatives opposed to changes to prevent any adjustments from being made. In interviews with POLITICO, five Republicans stated that they believe the group opposing changes is large enough to make it highly challenging to alter the rule next year. One GOP lawmaker mentioned that at least eight members would automatically oppose any changes.
House Republicans must maintain control if they wish to establish the rules. If they succeed in November, it will set the stage for a major battle in the upcoming months. This debate will not only impact whether Johnson can continue as speaker in the next Congress but also the leadership’s ability to shape the conference’s agenda despite resistance from hardliners. In short, if Johnson and other leaders cannot overcome the opposition from the right flank, they are headed for another potentially turbulent Congress.
Members of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, along with some hardliners outside the group, are engaging in private discussions about what they want to see in the rules package next year. This includes maintaining the current threshold for ousting a speaker.
“I think changing it will be very difficult,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). “We may have to move forward.”
Another Freedom Caucus member, speaking anonymously, was more direct: “If they want to revert to the way things were before McCarthy, then I don’t care who the speaker is, they will face the same battle.” This refers to the 15 rounds of ballots it took former Speaker Kevin McCarthy to secure the gavel.
Meanwhile, a larger segment of the conference wants to overhaul the rule. Republicans in and out of leadership are calling for a reset of the power dynamics that have plagued their conference since January 2023 when they believe McCarthy leaned too far towards the right. The vast majority of House Republicans see another prolonged speakership dispute, like the three-week episode triggered by McCarthy’s removal, as a nightmare scenario.
However, the hardliners have the advantage here. Johnson faces a basic math problem — he only has a three-vote margin, so he currently lacks the votes within his own conference to raise the ousting threshold. His best chance is to significantly increase his majority in November, which may be a challenging task. Democrats will vote unanimously against a GOP rules package in January, meaning Johnson can only rely on Republican votes.
“It depends on the size of the majority,” said Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), regarding the chances of leadership successfully countering the hardliners.
He added, “If we have a majority of 15, there won’t be any successful fights.”
Private discussions on rule changes extend beyond the motion to vacate. While conservatives are having their own talks behind the scenes on how to empower rank-and-file members further, centrists and leaders are devising their plans to limit potential chaos in the next Congress.
Conservatives aim to impose new restrictions on the types of bills that can pass under the higher two-thirds suspension threshold, a tool that GOP leadership has utilized several times in this Congress to bypass opposition and rely on Democratic support, especially for passing spending bills.
Meanwhile, a group of centrists has been discussing their own rule proposals, including the formation of a formal working group as reported by POLITICO. These suggestions involve establishing consequences for members who vote against bringing a GOP bill to the floor, a tactic that conservatives have used to thwart leadership priorities.
Republicans, including members of leadership, are also discussing raising the threshold for a discharge petition, a procedural mechanism that can force floor action on a bill if it garners 218 signatures, regardless of leadership objections.
Nevertheless, the rules governing the removal of a speaker are likely to attract the most attention in the potential GOP rules battle. And everyone seems firmly entrenched in their positions.
Republicans can set a higher ouster threshold as part of their internal conference rules debate in November, as they did after the 2022 election. However, this is just the beginning; the House rules are not official unless they are adopted by a full chamber vote in January. Last time, conservatives refused to vote for McCarthy until he made several changes to the rules they demanded, including lowering the threshold for ousting the speaker to one member, which were eventually accepted.
“I agreed with what we did in conference,” said Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio). “There needs to be a better standard than just a couple of renegades teaming up with the other side.”
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), another centrist, suggested that leadership should make a deal with Democrats, asking the other party to help raise the motion-to-vacate threshold in exchange for more committee seats.
“I would make the deal and move on,” Bacon said. “But I faced significant pushback: ‘You can’t make a deal with Democrats.'”
Conservative Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) stated in a brief interview that he does not support raising the threshold, adding that “there’s a group of us,” mainly within the Freedom Caucus, carefully examining the ouster rule and others. When asked if he believes the threshold will change in January, he responded, “I don’t think it will.”
Adding to the complexity for Johnson and other leaders is a broader group of Republicans who want changes to the motion to vacate but not to the fact that a single member can trigger the vote.
Griffith proposed a “hybrid” model, which retains the current ability for any member to initiate an ouster vote but limits its frequency. He suggested that it could not be used against a new speaker for the first six months in office and set a waiting period before it could be used again if brought up and failed.
Some supporters of the current rule have mentioned that they would be open to discussing raising the threshold in exchange for other priorities. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) expressed willingness to raise the motion-to-vacate threshold in exchange for ethics and campaign finance reforms, although it is uncertain if such an offer would sway the larger group of holdouts.
Roy, while acknowledging that “all things can be discussed,” stated that any changes “would have to come with something, if it changes at all.”
“I think it is an uphill battle to change it,” he added.
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