An unexpected drop in demand for higher education in England could pose significant challenges for universities, as predictions of enrollment growth in the coming years appear overly optimistic while a demographic decline is on the horizon.
A report by Higher Education Policy Institute president Bahram Bekhradnia suggests that previous estimates of 350,000 more students by 2035 are now unrealistic due to recent decreases in the participation rate, raising doubts about institutions’ ability to overcome their current financial difficulties.
Despite an increase in the 18-year-old population in England since 2020, which is projected to peak in 2030, there has not been a substantial rise in student numbers, as noted in the report.
2023 and 2024 saw the first declines in the application rate for 18-year-olds after years of steady increases since 2012, indicating a stagnation in young people’s interest in attending university, a trend that is described as “largely unprecedented in the past three decades.”
The report concludes that the main uncertainty going forward is whether the recent decline in participation is temporary or if it signals a longer-term reversal of previous trends.
According to Bekhradnia, the number of 18-year-olds in England will start to decrease after 2030, and if the participation rate continues to decline, this could spell trouble for universities in the future.
If the current participation rate remains unchanged, the report predicts that applications from high school leavers will increase by about 8 percent between 2024 and 2030, but then decline by 20,000 between 2030 and 2035, resulting in only a small net increase over the next decade.
The report identifies several factors contributing to the declining demand, including cost, declines in school attainment, the state of the economy, the impact of the pandemic, and the negative rhetoric from the previous British government.
Bekhradnia highlights the negative impact of the previous government’s stance on higher education, particularly with regards to reducing the real-terms cost of attending university. He emphasizes the need for better understanding of why there has been such a significant shift in attitudes towards higher education.
The report suggests that reversing the previous government’s rhetoric may help mitigate the effects of declining participation, but it is not guaranteed to solve the issue entirely.
Addressing the participation gap among young men and disadvantaged backgrounds could be crucial in boosting demand for higher education.
While a significant increase in male participation would be needed to achieve gender parity, even a partial closing of the gap could lead to more students enrolling and reverse the decline post-2030.
Despite improvements in participation among disadvantaged students over the past decade, recent years have seen stagnation in progress, indicating that wider efforts are needed to drive participation growth across the board.
Bekhradnia emphasizes the importance of a coordinated national effort to understand and address the recent declines in participation, as universities are likely to face increasing challenges post-2030 unless significant changes are made.
The report suggests that without the reintroduction of student number controls, the outlook for universities could worsen, as some institutions may suffer from competition for students, leading to potential financial instability.
In conclusion, the report paints a bleak picture for universities in England unless concerted efforts are made to reverse the decline in participation rates and ensure sustainable growth in the higher education sector.