For nearly 35 years, Wyoming entrepreneur Alan Chadwick has operated his business importing clothing from China and selling the Western-style gear to stores catering to “working cowboys” in the US. Now, with former President Donald Trump campaigning on a promise to impose a 10%-20% tariff, or border tax, on all goods entering the country, with the rate rising to 60% for goods from China, Chadwick is forced to reevaluate his approach. The 66-year-old has been considering relocating the manufacturing of his products, such as wool shirts with snaps and canvas jackets, to India or Pakistan – or potentially shutting down his Wyoming Traders business, which employs 16 people, and retiring altogether. Chadwick views tariffs as a “tax on the American people” and believes that the costs associated with establishing a factory in the US are unfeasible. Despite his concerns about tariffs, as he gets ready to vote, he anticipates setting aside his reservations in favor of other priorities, such as illegal immigration and opposition to abortion. “I will support Trump even though he will negatively impact our company if he follows through on his promises,” he stated. Chadwick’s willingness to overlook Trump’s stance on tariffs reflects the conflicting forces shaping American politics. The Republican Party’s platform has shifted the country – once a staunch advocate of free trade – towards policies aimed at safeguarding US companies and jobs from foreign competition, despite the potential economic downsides. Trump imposed tariffs on thousands of Chinese goods during his first term, a move that President Joe Biden, despite condemning them prior to taking office, has maintained. This year, the Republican candidate has made comprehensive tariffs a focal point of his presidential campaign, referring to such duties as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” He argues that his proposals could lead to job creation, revitalize US manufacturing, boost wages, and generate billions of dollars from other countries. However, most conventional economists reject his claims, asserting that the policy would do little to increase employment in the US while raising costs for American consumers and slowing global growth. In the US, the Tax Foundation forecasts that the tariffs could result in a net decrease of 684,000 jobs and a 0.8% contraction in GDP – and that’s without factoring in the almost certain retaliation from other nations. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the tariffs would cause the average US household’s expenses to increase by at least $1,700, one of the more conservative estimates available. “It’s ludicrous,” stated economist Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, regarding Trump’s assertions. “This is not the solution that people are hoping for.” Despite the warnings, some surveys indicate that Trump’s tariff proposals are resonating: a September poll by Reuters/Ipsos found that 56% of likely voters supported the Republican’s tariff plans. Kyle Plesa, a 39-year-old Trump supporter in Miami, Florida, expressed skepticism that tariffs would deliver the precise outcomes promised by the candidate, but he believed that Trump’s focus on the pitfalls of globalization had struck a chord. “People are upset about it, and I think Trump is at least addressing it,” he remarked. “I would probably prefer protecting business and paying a little bit more due to tariffs than I would dealing with the current state of inflation and raised taxes from the left,” he added. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has criticized Trump’s tariff expansion plans as a “national sales tax,” advocating for a more targeted approach. Trump has suggested that tariff revenue could facilitate substantial tax cuts, at times proposing the elimination of income tax altogether. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s decision to uphold Trump’s China tariffs – and expand them to include items such as electric vehicles – has allowed the Republican to claim a policy triumph. Biden has also endorsed other protectionist measures, such as historic government spending to bolster manufacturing in sectors like semiconductors and green energy. He and Harris, like Trump, have opposed the acquisition of US Steel by a Japanese company on national security grounds, instigating concerns in the business community about foreign investment. Michael Froman, who served as the US trade representative under former President Barack Obama, indicated that Washington’s turn towards tools like tariffs and restrictions on foreign investment is most likely here to stay. “There is certainly less enthusiasm for pursuing what we might describe as an affirmative trade agenda focused on liberalization, openness, and reducing barriers,” he noted. “We simply have to acknowledge that none of these policies are without consequences. They all involve some form of trade-off.”Jason Trice, the co-chief executive of Jasco, an Oklahoma-based lighting and electronics company that supplies major retailers like Walmart, noted that his company’s experience demonstrates the harmful effects of tariffs. Since 2019, Jasco has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in tariffs while overhauling its supply chain, shifting most of its manufacturing from China to countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Trice mentioned that these changes have reduced his company’s efficiency and increased costs by approximately 10%-15%, which have been passed on to retailers, ultimately leading to price hikes and contributing to inflation. The business has suffered as a result, with revenue declining by 25% since 2020 and staff numbers decreasing, through attrition, from 500 to 350. “In 50 years in business, the Chinese government has never inflicted as much harm on our company as the Trump administration has,” Trice remarked. “Tariffs have not aided in bringing jobs back to America. Tariffs have harmed American businesses and diminished employment opportunities.” Lucerne International, a Michigan-based car parts supplier that has been manufacturing in China for many years, has also spent recent years adapting to the new environment. With assistance from government incentives, the company is now working towards opening its first factory in its home state by 2026, a move expected to generate over 300 jobs in four years. However, while the project may seem like a successful example of “reshoring” that politicians from both parties desire, chief executive Mary Buchzeiger, a long-time Republican, believes it is misguided for the US to erect “walls” against its competitors. “I don’t think tariffs are a viable long-term solution,” she asserted. “All we are doing is making ourselves increasingly uncompetitive on a global scale.” Michelle Fleury contributed to this report. North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher offers insights on the White House race in his bi-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. UK readers can subscribe here, while those outside the UK can sign up here.”
